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Message: <blockquote data-quote="spiely" data-source="post: 270776" data-attributes="member: 145">pick door 1. The host opens door 2. I could stay with door 1 or switch to door 3. If i switched  to door 3, my chances will increase from 1/3 to 2/3.  When i made my guess, there's a 1/3 probability that the porsche was behind door 1. There was a 2/3 probability that the porsche was not behind door 1 -- in other words, behind door 2 or door 3. This fact has not changed. There is still a 1/3 chance that the porsche is behind door 1 and a 2/3 chance that it is not. But, the host has opened door 2 and showed us that it's a hazygoat there. So, the 2/3 chance that you were initially wrong becomes a 2/3 chance that the prize is behind door 3. This probably doesn't make sense but it's an example of conditional probability. What is the chance of something happening, given that something else already has. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/classics/crazy.gif"  class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":crazy:" title="acrazy    :crazy:" data-shortname=":crazy:" /></blockquote>

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